Hello everyone, I'm Louis, thank you for the invitation to the FootballAnt platform. In the future, as a author of this professional big data prediction platform, I will share with you some of the inside information and experience I have learned from working in a bookmaker 8 years, hoping to provide some reference for football betting fans. If you’ve only been betting with intuitive experience before, then after reading this article, I believe you will learn the importance of data analysis in betting.
First of all, we need to know that there are many gaming companies in the world, each with their own rules, characteristics and tendencies. Although the handicaps and odds they open will be different, but you need to see the essence, their ultimate goal is to get more "Juice", therefore, as long as the overall trend is analyzed, the accuracy of the prediction can be greatly improved.
In theory, if you look at more bookmaker data, the more accurate trend judgments will be, but human energy is always limited, we need to find the most successful and most valuable ones, such as bet365, BetVictor, Crown, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Wade, bwin etc.
Speaking of which, I would like to give a thumbs up to FootballAnt. In addition to the 3 in 1 handicap, initial and real-time handicap of all major bookmakers, their products also have a very practical big data prediction function. These features have helped me save a lot of time during analysis. With such a good tool, I hope everyone can learn to use it and improve the analysis efficiency.
This article will teach you how to make early warnings from abnormal changes in odds based on the odds data I have summarized in major bookmakers around the world, so as to greatly improve the accuracy of predictions.
I will explain the specific analysis methods from four aspects: abnormal odds warning, home/away warning, home/away confidence, and draw warning. I will combine some typical examples so that you can better understand. I usually observe the changes in the odds within 5 hours of the start of the game. This is the peak of the betting volume, and I personally think it is the most valuable reference.
1. Abnormal Odds Warning
The first is the early warning of abnormal odds. If the latest odds increase or decrease by 7% compared to 5 hours ago, you should make an early warning.
For example, in Eerste Divisie, SC Telsda(14th) vs Jong Ajax youth(4th). Before the start of the game, the odds of home win suddenly decreased from 4.75 to 4.2. All the bookmakers are still unanimously optimistic about Ajax youth, but this greatly changed odds ratio is enough to show that Telstar has a considerable positive reason. This should cause sufficient vigilance. Sure enough, Ajax youth regretted losing the game by one goal.
2. Home/Away Warning
Next is an early warning for the home/away team. When the latest home win/away win odds increase by 7% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the home win/away win odds >2.0, then you need to be alert.
Let's take the EFL Championship between Stoke City and Swansea as an example. Although Stoke City ranks high in the league, if we analyze the recent history, we can see that the home team has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in the past five games, and the state is not particularly good. In terms of head to head, both teams have beaten each other, and the home team does not have much advantage. Before the start of the game, the odds of the away team increased from 3.4 to 3.75, which fully conforms to the away team warning. As a result, the away team was suppressed throughout the game and finally defeated with a score of 3-0.
3. Home/Away Confidence
Similarly, let's look at home/away confidence predictions. If you understand the home/away warning, this part is also easy to understand. When the latest home win/away win odds decrease by 2% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the home win/away win odds ≤1.75, it conforms to the early warning of home and away win confidence.
Let's analyze the Coppa Italia match between Juventus and Sassuolo. The home winning odds remained stable at 1.45-1.5 from the initial handicap to two hours before the start of the game, and decreased to 1.3 directly before the start of the game, which obviously highlights the confidence of the bookmakers in Juventus. Throughout the whole game, Sassuolo's ball possession rate was higher than Juventus, but Juventus' offensive efficiency was higher, the two teams have not made any further achievements after 1-1 in 24 minutes, and Juventus finally completed a last-minute goal in 88 minutes.
4. Draw Warning
The last part is draw warning. After summarizing the database of bookmakers I got before, the early warning value concluded as follows: when the latest odds of a draw decrease by 2% compared to the odds 5 hours ago, and the odds of a draw ≤3.20, there is a high probability of a draw.
The most representative recent match is the Africa Cup of Nations match between Gabon and Morocco. On the surface, the difference in strength between the two teams is quite obvious, eight Gabon players are infected with COVID-19 including Aubameyang. With the odds of winning and losing basically unchanged, the draw odds decreased from 3.1 to 2.75. In the game, Morocco equalized the game twice after falling behind, finally drew 2-2 with Gabon, and the two teams entered the next round hand in hand.
Let me say a little more about draw. There are a lot of articles about the analysis of the odds of a draw (FootballAnt has some related analysis articles, which are also very well written), because the probability of a draw is inherently lower, and there are too many influencing factors, the accuracy of the draw prediction will not be as high as that of wins or losses, even many betting experts recommend giving up some unsure draw bets.
But if you see a match that you really want to bet on, and the strength of the home and away teams is very close, you can't make a choice, at this time, the "draw warning" can definitely provide a considerable reference value. Because looking directly at the changes in the odds is equivalent to putting aside all emotional analysis and directly basing it on the trend of the bookmaker, which is sometimes more accurate.
The above sharing is the 4 tips to know the winning team by odds. Analyze changes in odds and make early warnings to improve the prediction accuracy. I counted the games that conformed to the 4 tips in the past 3 days:
● Abnormal Odds Warning: Predicted correctly in 6 of 7 matches, the correct rate is 86%;
● Home/Away Warning: Predicted correctly in 28 of 37 matches, the correct rate is 76%;
● Home/Away Confidence: Predicted correctly in 10 of 14 matches, the correct rate is 71%;
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